Democrats have not won a statewide race in Texas since 1994. That streak may end in November. And President Trump may be the reason why.
Today, May 26, Texas Republicans vote in a Senate primary runoff between four-term incumbent John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton. The winner faces Democrat James Talarico in the general election in November. And the polling tells a clear story: Talarico leads both of them. He leads Cornyn by three points. He leads Paxton by five. Trump endorsed Paxton six days ago.
The Race
Neither Cornyn nor Paxton cleared 50 percent in the March primary, forcing a runoff. Cornyn finished first with 42 percent. Paxton finished second at 40.5 percent. The margin going into tomorrow is thin: a University of Houston poll taken in early May showed Paxton leading 48 to 45 among likely Republican runoff voters, with 7 percent still undecided.
Cornyn has been a senator for 24 years. He has won four times in a state that Republicans have dominated for three decades. He is as establishment as Texas Republicans get, and that is precisely the problem. Inside a Republican primary in 2026, being the establishment candidate is not a compliment.
The Endorsement
Trump announced his support for Paxton on May 19, one week before the runoff. He called Paxton a “true MAGA Warrior who has ALWAYS delivered for Texas.” He cited two reasons for the endorsement: Paxton’s support for eliminating the Senate filibuster and his backing of the SAVE Act, a Republican voter restriction bill.
The endorsement blindsided Cornyn’s allies. Senate Majority Leader John Thune had personally lobbied the White House to stay out of the race. Senator Lindsey Graham publicly warned that if Paxton wins the nomination, defending the Texas seat in November will be three times more expensive. The institutional Republican Party wanted Cornyn. Trump picked Paxton anyway.
The Baggage
Paxton brings a record that Democratic opposition researchers will spend the next five months turning into television ads.
In May 2023, the Republican-controlled Texas House of Representatives voted to impeach Paxton on 20 articles, including bribery, obstruction of justice, and abuse of office. The articles accused Paxton of using the power of the attorney general’s office to protect Nate Paul, an Austin real estate developer and political donor who was under federal investigation. Four of Paxton’s own employees had filed a whistleblower complaint and reported him to the FBI.
The Texas Senate, which includes Paxton’s wife Angela Paxton as a member, acquitted him in September 2023. He was not required to step down.
Before the impeachment, Paxton had been under indictment for securities fraud since 2015. A grand jury charged him with two felony counts for soliciting investors in a technology company without disclosing that the company was paying him. That case dragged through the courts for nearly a decade before Paxton reached a deal in March 2024: he paid $300,000 in restitution and performed 200 hours of community service without admitting wrongdoing. The Department of Justice separately investigated Paxton for federal corruption and declined to bring charges in late 2024.
None of that disqualified him in a Republican primary. Whether it disqualifies him with the broader Texas electorate is a different question.
The Math
James Talarico is a state representative from Austin. He won the Democratic primary in March and has been running general election polling that should make national Democrats pay attention.
An April Texas Tribune poll showed Talarico leading Cornyn 44 to 41 in a head-to-head general election matchup. Against Paxton, Talarico leads 46 to 41. Five points. In Texas. Against an incumbent party.
Texas has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994. Beto O’Rourke came within 2.6 points of Ted Cruz in 2018 and lost. Democrats have talked about a demographic shift turning Texas competitive for years. The polling suggests it may be closer to reality than conventional wisdom acknowledges.
A Paxton nomination hands Democrats a candidate with a decade of documented scandals, a Republican impeachment on his record, and a fraud settlement he paid to make a criminal case go away. Cornyn is beatable. Paxton, the data suggests, is more beatable.
Democrats have not won Texas statewide in 30 years. Trump just handed them their best shot at changing that. The runoff is today.