A 15 percent tariff surcharge currently applied to nearly all goods imported into the United States from nearly every country on earth expires on July 24, 2026, under the terms of the federal law that authorizes it. The law that created the authority — Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 — sets a hard limit of 150 days on any surcharge imposed under its terms, and the only way to extend it past that deadline is an act of Congress. Congress has not passed an extension and no extension legislation has advanced. The Trump administration cannot extend the tariff on its own. It expires July 24 as a matter of statute. The administration is racing to replace it — the U.S. Trade Representative faces a July 20 deadline on two separate Section 301 trade investigations that could establish new tariffs on 46 countries before the Section 122 clock runs out. What replaces the expiring tariff — if anything — will determine what Americans pay for imported electronics, clothing, furniture, auto parts, and food in the weeks and months that follow.
How the Tariff Got Here
The Section 122 tariff is the administration’s second attempt at imposing a broad import surcharge. The first attempt used a different legal authority: the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, or IEEPA, a 1977 law that allows the president to regulate international commerce during a declared national emergency. In April 2025, the administration imposed sweeping tariffs — the so-called Liberation Day tariffs — under IEEPA. Federal courts struck those tariffs down. The Court of International Trade ruled that IEEPA did not give the president authority to impose tariffs of the magnitude and scope involved, and the ruling removed the legal basis for the IEEPA tariff structure. The administration appealed, and separate legal proceedings were underway, but the court’s ruling created immediate legal uncertainty about whether the IEEPA tariffs could continue to be collected. In February 2026, the administration shifted to Section 122. On February 20, 2026, President Trump issued a proclamation invoking Section 122 to impose a 10 percent surcharge on nearly all imports. Two days later, on February 22, the surcharge was raised to 15 percent. The 150-day clock began running on February 24, 2026. That clock expires July 24, 2026.
What Section 122 Covers and What It Costs
Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 was written to let the president impose a temporary import surcharge of up to 15 percent for up to 150 days when the United States faces what the law calls a large and serious balance-of-payments deficit, meaning the country is spending significantly more on imports than it earns from exports. The authority was designed as a short-term emergency tool, not a permanent tariff mechanism. The current 15 percent surcharge applies to virtually all imports from virtually all countries — electronics, apparel, footwear, furniture, food and agricultural products, auto parts, household goods, and industrial materials. Major exemptions exist for Canada and Mexico under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, and certain goods with existing tariffs under other laws are handled separately. For most consumer goods that Americans buy that are manufactured abroad, however, the 15 percent surcharge has been applied on top of whatever base tariff already existed. The Tax Foundation, a nonpartisan research organization, has estimated that the current tariff environment will cost the average American household $700 in 2026, down from $1,000 in 2025 when the Liberation Day tariffs were fully in effect.
What Happens on July 24: Three Scenarios
After July 24, three outcomes are possible. The first is that Congress passes legislation extending the Section 122 authority. Congress has the power to extend it, and several bills have been introduced in both chambers. None has advanced out of committee. The political dynamics are complicated: some Republican members have introduced the Reclaim Trade Powers Act, which would constrain presidential tariff authority rather than expand it, while others in the caucus have expressed support for maintaining tariffs broadly. Passing an extension would require a majority vote in both chambers and the president’s signature. As of publication, no extension bill is moving toward a floor vote. The second scenario is that the administration puts Section 301 tariffs in place before July 24. Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 — a different provision from Section 122 — allows the president to impose tariffs in response to unfair trade practices by specific countries. Unlike Section 122, Section 301 has no statutory rate cap and no time limit. It can be used to impose tariffs that last indefinitely. The USTR launched two Section 301 investigations in March 2026 targeting excess manufacturing capacity in 16 economies and forced-labor enforcement failures across more than 60 countries. The proposed outcome is 12.5 percent tariffs on 46 countries, including China, Vietnam, India, Thailand, Japan, and South Korea. The USTR’s completion deadline for those investigations is July 20, 2026 — four days before Section 122 expires. If finalized in time, the Section 301 tariffs would replace Section 122 before it lapses. The third scenario is that Section 122 expires without a replacement in place. In that case, import duties would revert to standard Most Favored Nation rates, which average 3 to 5 percent for most consumer goods from the affected countries. Prices on imported goods would likely fall in the short term. The administration has given no indication it intends to allow this to happen.
What Section 301 Would Mean for Prices
If the administration succeeds in putting Section 301 tariffs in place before July 24, the result for consumers would depend heavily on what specific countries and product categories are covered and at what rate. The proposed 12.5 percent rate is lower than the current 15 percent Section 122 surcharge for most goods, which could produce modest price relief on some products. However, Section 301 tariffs can be layered on top of other existing tariffs — separate tariffs on Chinese goods, for example, already exist under earlier rounds of Section 301 actions from 2018 and 2019, some of which exceed 25 percent. Goods from China could face the new 12.5 percent Section 301 tariff stacked on top of existing China-specific duties, potentially resulting in higher total tariffs than under Section 122. The 46 countries on the proposed list cover a substantial share of U.S. import volume. Trade attorneys and importers have described the proposed Section 301 framework as a de facto successor to Section 122 that would give the administration permanent rather than temporary tariff authority with no rate ceiling. Unlike Section 122, a Section 301 tariff does not expire after 150 days. Once in place, it can remain indefinitely unless affirmatively removed by the administration or challenged successfully in court.
Where Things Stand
As of July 11, 2026, the 15 percent Section 122 tariff on virtually all imports expires in 13 days. The USTR’s July 20 deadline for the Section 301 investigation is nine days away. Congress has not passed any tariff extension legislation. The administration has not publicly announced what it will do if the Section 301 process is not complete by July 24. Consumer prices on imported goods — electronics, clothing, furniture, food, auto parts — have reflected the 15 percent surcharge since late February. Whether that surcharge is replaced by a higher, lower, or equivalent tariff under different legal authority, or whether it lapses entirely, will be determined by decisions made in the next two weeks. The administration moved from IEEPA to Section 122 when courts blocked the first tariff structure. It is now moving toward Section 301, which carries no statutory time limit and no rate ceiling, before the second structure expires. Each successive legal authority the administration has used gives it more permanent and less judicially constrained tariff power.